UPDATE: Valuation target reached on 4/3/2014 - 37% YTD Return given PUTs - SJM
The Good - It has value except the intrinsic value is about in the 40s or 30s based upon what I see as a slice of the global ad space from Google and Facebook. The rest divvy up what is left over.
The Bad - The key issues are declining users...I'm not sure anyone really even asked if there are 5 accounts for ONE user but there are. A lot of spam users as well.
The Ugly - Twitter is NOT really needed. Here's why. Twitter is the ONLINE Version of AP. With AP, there are about 10 key sources that re-distribute information. The rest are thought leaders or brands. So....does the US or Global Consumer really need a Twitter? Not really - Facebook and Medium.co might replace it. Medium was just launched by one of the founders of Twitter as well as jelly.co. Biz Stone.
Ok....Reality Check - Does Twitter go the way of other Social has-beens - Not yet - But the growth is questionable.
In so many words, there's not much DEPTH to Twitter. 140 characters have to be coded like a UNIX Command Line from the 90s and people are not flocking (pardon the pun) to get more data tossed at them.
The ONE saving grace - News stories break FASTER on Twitter than they do in traditional media.....Customer focus groups and trend barometers all use Twitter - The question becomes: 1) How do you value this?, 2) What is the addressable market for the service, really?, 3) What are the new competitors (and the former FOUNDERS) doing to CRUSH the BLUE BIRD.
Some passing thoughts....If I had MORE SPACE on TWITTER, I would have Tweeted...Tweet...Tweet....
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